Can Pakistan Still Qualify for Semi-finals? Explained

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Two defeats by the narrowest of margins have left Pakistan on the brink at the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2022, but not yet totally out of the picture in terms of qualification for the semi-finals.
“To be honest, it’s hard (to qualify now),” admitted captain Babar Azam after the loss to Zimbabwe earlier in the Super 12 stage.

But Pakistan still have a glimmer of hope of reaching the knockout stage. First they simply must beat South Africa on Thursday. And if they do then they will still have a chance going into the final round of matches, with Pakistan then needing Netherlands, Zimbabwe or the weather to do them a favour.

Out of Pakistan’s hands
The maximum number of points Babar and his side can now reach is six. So if they beat South Africa then essentially the situation will be this:

One of India and South Africa must drop points in their final games to give Pakistan a chance.

A loss for either side would give Pakistan the opportunity to snatch a top-two spot with a win over Bangladesh.

The T20 World Cup Standings

Should rain prevents a result, South Africa’s last match then is the only way net run rate could come into play.

In that scenario, Pakistan play later on the same day in Adelaide so would know exactly what they need to overtake the Proteas on Net RR – likely to be quite a sizeable but not insurmountable target.

So qualification for the semi-finals is not mathematically impossible, but things really need to fall in Pakistan’s favour.

Can they hold up their end of the equation at least? Here’s what awaits in their final two matches…

Pakistan’s remaining matches

Potentially the decisive game in Pakistan’s unlikely revival sees the SCG host a massive Group 2 fixture. South Africa are ranked third in the world at the time of writing and possess a fiery bowling attack and powerful batting unit. But Pakistan’s record against the Proteas in recent times is good, with six wins in the last eight T20I meetings.

Sunday 06 November: Pakistan v Bangladesh, Adelaide Oval

If Pakistan are still alive on the final matchday then they will fancy their chances against Bangladesh. The recent T20I record in this fixture is heavily in Pakistan’s favour, with eight straight wins (and one abandoned game) since the Tigers last won in March 2016.

Where will Pakistan finish? Take the FTX Bracket Challenge!

Remaining Group 2 Fixtures
Thursday 03 November: Pakistan v South Africa, SCG, Sydney

Sunday 06 November: South Africa v Netherlands, Adelaide Oval

Sunday 06 November: Pakistan v Bangladesh, Adelaide Oval

Sunday 06 November: Zimbabwe v India, MCG, Melbourne

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